This site is intended for those who are interested in the human development objective laws, knowledge management and issues of forecasting future.

Individual, knowledge, intelligence

What are major drivers of human development, what laws do they follow and what are the outcomes of following these laws?

Knowledge is one of the major drivers shaping world development. Monograph ‘Forecasting human development noting knowledge factor’ investigates in details the role and quantitative effects of knowledge on world processes that are demography, GDP and technology revolution.

Intellectual capital of countries is also of principal importance for world development and so science and education gain top priority in future power contest in the world.

Intellectual capital of Russia is one of the richest in the world. By 2050, Russia may become one of the most successful by GDP per capita and leave behind the USA and EC.

Knowledge and Economy

Знания и экономика

News persuades us the world goes round finance, loans, stakes, banks and oil price. However calculations prove human capital makes 80 per cent of global capital currently and its share is enlarging.

Well-educated specialists and scientists are the main wealth of our world (chapter 11). So why do football players, actors, tennis players, racers cost dozens of millions of dollars per annum whereas scientists cost almost nothing?

The world is on the threshold of knowledge-based technology revolutions so wealth created by scientists needs to be evaluated differently.

Another aspect about the importance of knowledge underestimated by humanity is that economists     relate reasons behind crises to various financial problems whereas the actual reason concerns changes happened in global knowledge and its implementation.

As soon as the amount of knowledge produced by humanity is about half as much the level typical for the last technology revolution, a new crisis comes (chapter 5) and it marks entry to a new technology era and an oncoming change of the global economy.

Educational exponent


A specialist’s contribution to GDP appears to depend on years of study exponentially, i.e. heavily (chapter 11).

If you studied 5 extra years your productivity is 10 times as high (58 per cent per annum). The reason is, in particular, that well-educated specialists lead new technology to their country and master it.

Well-educated nations are broadly recognized to leave others far, i.e. exponentially, behind as to GDP per capita.

In their global contest, the richest economies will struggle for educating more and more scientists and higher education professionals and this will be their top priority.

An interesting consequence of this pattern is that specialist teams can be much more efficient than individuals. To organize functioning of specialist teams is both challenging and extremely beneficial from the perspective of improving efficiency of business, countries and humanity as a whole.

Moreover, persistent is the task of changing education culture in countries, minimizing strive for individual leadership in favour of team working starting from school and further.

How was knowledge retained in the times of Eva?

Как сохранилось знание во времена Евы?

Genetic research proves that from 150,000 to 200,000 years ago the population of homo sapience reduced to its minimum of about 10,000 people. It is due to such a bottleneck passed by humanity that now we are so homogeneous genetically. That time may be called the time when there was a woman we call Eva.

Research proves the amount of knowledge is proportional to the population size so passing the bottleneck should have resulted in the loss of knowledge by people and to restore it would have meant another million-year development course.

In what way contradictions between genetic data and knowledge enrichment pattern may be resolved? One of the hypotheses suggests the lost knowledge was acquired from Neanderthals or another ancient primogenitor population (chapter 6). However afterward they also got into a bottleneck due to a volcanic supereruption and were unable to restore their population.

An alternative version suggests people had already got language and thinking that time and luckily saved them even within a very small population so that they were able to restore human knowledge quickly.

Thanks: Maketnw