This site is intended for those who are interested in the human development objective laws, knowledge management and issues of forecasting future.

A dozens of trillions of dollars error

Ошибка в десятки триллионы долларов

What is the reason behind the crisis of 2008? Assertedly, a financial bubble. And what about Great Depression in 1929? A bubble and lack of money (Wiki gives 9 reasons at choice). Shocking crises shaking richest economies to the core seem to happen occasionally and wise financers are again and again unable to anticipate and explain them even when a crisis has happened.

However there is a sequence of technology revolutions and it is linked to crises consistently. What revolution do we observe now and when will we observe its bright side? The accurate answer costs dozens if not hundreds of trillions of dollars. The author gives his version in chapter 9.

Stabilization society

850331Demograf

In the 20 century, many demographists considered population growth cessation and even depopulation as a common good. And now this dream is about to coming true.  Humanity decelerated its growth sharply.

However the amount of human knowledge is in direct proportion to the global population and the latter directly depends on the gross domestic product (GDP). So should population growth be ceased, GDP per capita would stop growing as well (chapter 3). In other words there is no reason to expect better life in future.

On the other hand, this means that technology including environment friendly is not developed. The only thing to do will be to burn out the rest oil, contaminate the Earth with waste and observe how society which has stopped developing degrades.

Actually there is a dilemma, what is better: population growth and technology development combined with the treat of environment pollution and the hope to remediate it basing on the advanced technology or stable population figures and degrading combined with slack consumption of scraps of natural resources.

There is another more beneficial alternative that is to learn how to enrich knowledge under zero population growth. Humanity is unable to do so yet. We can just reckon on the knowledge revolution. Estimations prove its first stage may start in about 40 years. Whether we will be able to stretch out to it is the key challenge of the human development.

Knowledge waves

волны знаний

Kondratiev’s long waves are well-known. But beyond the three cycles investigated by Kondratiev the revolutions pattern appears to be quite different.

Waves follow each other not in equal periods but accelerating in time up to 1960. This is a result of hyperbolic population growth. Then the demographic transition period starts, population growth decelerates and wave repetition reduces.

Waves appear to come in pairs which are similar in essence, for example, the First and the Second Industrial Revolutions (1780 and 1850). The first of the wave pair determines innovations and the second brings them to implementation and increases life standards (chapter 4).

Another interesting pattern: technology revolutions are closely linked to the level of human knowledge and happen when the current level approximately half as large the previous (chapter 5).

Actually, it is knowledge that causes revolutions and crises accordingly. And the crisis of 2008 is not just a collapse of financial bubbles but the first revolution in the pair of biotechnology revolutions. The crisis will finish only when society removes barriers to development of this technology and ensures its implementation by adequate investments, people, laws…

Thanks: Maketnw