This site is intended for those who are interested in the human development objective laws, knowledge management and issues of forecasting future.

The author’s articles

2019 г.

  1. Karanashev А., Shinkareva O.,Prichina O.,Gorshenin V.,Orekhov V. The effectiveness of the research and development teams with an account for process management specifics. International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology (IJCIET). Volume 10, Issue 02, February 2019, pp.1784-1793 URL:
  2. Olga S. Prichina, Viktor D. Orekhov, Yulia V. Evdokimova, Olesya G. Kukharenko, Marina V. Kovshova. Evolution of key factors and growth potential of human capital. International Journal of Innovative Technology and Exploring Engineering (IJITEE) 8(7), 2019, pp. 2226–2234. URL:
  3. Orekhov Viktor D., Lyutova Tatiana V., Panfilova Elena A. Cognitive modeling of labor activity processes in R&D. M., Yur-VAK. Problems of Economics and legal practice. № 1, 2019. pp. 88-94.
  4. Elena Panfilova, Viktor Orekhov, Olga Shinkareva. Impact of corporate factors on market capitalization processes in Russian companies. M., Yur-VAK. Problems of Economics and legal practice. 2019. № 4, pp. 54–63.
  5.  Viktor D. Orekhov, Olga S. Prichina, Alla V. Blinnikova, Elena A. Panfilova, Elena S. Shchennikova. Indicative diagnostics of the educational component of human capital based on mathematical modeling. Opcion, Ano 35, VE, Especial No.20 (2019): 2337-2365. URL:
  6. Olga S. Prichina, Viktor D. Orekhov, Elena A. Panfilova. Development of a model for forecasting socio-economic development on the basis of global studies of public administration quality. Economic and Social Development (Book of Abstracts) XIX International Social Congress (ISC-2019)
  7. Viktor D. Orekhov,  Olga S. Prichina, Alla V. Blinnikova Formulation of a Predictive Model for Economic Growth Based on Education Indicators. Economic and Social Development (Book of Abstracts) XIX International Social Congress (ISC-2019)

2018 г.

  1. Viktor D.Orekhov, Ruslan Ramanau, Michael Melnik. Investigation of the legislation of control effectiveness of labor of scientific groups. 34th International Scientific Conference on Economic and Social Development – XVIII International Social Congress (ISC-2018) – Moscow, 18-19 October 2018,  рр. 669–678. URL:
  2. Peter V. Solodukha, Helena Piel, Olga S. Prichina, Viktor D. Orekhov. Investigation of Managed External- and Intercoming Processes in Conditions of Global and Uncertainty. 34th International Scientific Conference on Economic and Social Development – XVIII International Social Congress (ISC-2018) – Moscow, 18-19 October 2018, URL:
  3. Olga V. Shinkareva, Viktor D. Orekhov, Petr V. Solodukha, Olga S. Prichina, А. Sh. Gizyatova. Multifactor assessment of indicators on dynamic modeling of programs for managing the performance of scientific labor. International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology (IJCIET) Volume 9, Issue 13, December 2018, pp.303–317. URL:
  4. Solodukha Peter V., Orekhov Viktor D., Selivanov Stanislav. Dynamic modeling of trends of social  and economic development in the field  of labor activity in Russia. M., Yur-VAK. Problems of Economics and legal practice. 2018. № 4. С. 78–82.

2017 г.

  1. Olga Prichina, Viktor Orekhov, Elena Shchennikova. World number of scientists in dynamic simulation for the past and the future. In the book: Economic and Social Development Book of Proceedings. Varazdin Development and Entrepreneurship Agency; Russian State Social University. 2017. С. 69-81.

List of the author’s articles from 2000 onwards >>

  • Economic efficiency of education

The article considers issues of economic efficiency of educational and scientific activities. The author suggests an intellectual capital indicator model. He proves specialists’ contribution to a country’s GDP grows exponentially depending on the accumulated years of learning. As to Russia and some other countries, there appears a gap between the amount of intellectual capital and their GDPs.

Орехов В.Д. Экономическая эффективность образования. Вестник МИМ ЛИНК, № 5, 2015.

The article gives insight into the reasons behind the current economic crisis while considering development of humanity as a single system. The author proves the duration of periods between technology revolutions fits geometric progression and its ratio equals 0.5 for principal revolutions. Between principal revolutions, there happen ‘prognostic’ revolutions which start with a sharp jump in patenting whereas a principal revolution starts with a decline followed by rise. Amount of knowledge grows half as much and global population grows by 40 per cent between revolutions. The crisis started in 2008 is a prognostic of a biotechnology revolution.

Орехов В.Д. О парной взаимосвязи технологических революций. «European Applied Sciences», journal ORT Publishing, Stuttgard, № 11 2013. p. 57-62.

Human demographic transition is nowadays the most powerful factor responsible for globally unstable business environment. The author proposes expressions for population growth (N) and knowledge enrichment (Z) which prove there is a logical link between increase of these parameters and technology revolutions. Should humanity reach a stable population, human knowledge might stop developing and thus global gross product might stop increasing.

Орехов В. Д. Прогнозирование в сложном окружении // XIV всеросс. симпоз.: «Стратегическое планирование и развитие предприятий». – М.: ЦЭМИ, 2013. – №5. – p. 107–110.

The article considers objective laws of population growth in the period of demographic transition noting effects of changing GDP per capita. The author suggests a compact mathematical model which fits statistics well. The author considers opportunities for population regulation.

Орехов В.Д. Компактная модель роста численности человечества. Social processes Regulation in the context of economics, law and management. Materials digest of LIII International Research and Practice Conference. London, June 06-June 11, 2013, p.p.56-58.

The article considers issues of global GDP approximation and forecast in the period up to 2100. The author proves global GDP being proportional to population raised to the power 2.25 with the population figure to be taken as deferred approximately 25 years back. The author shows the time dependence of GDP being close to linear in the period from 2010 to 2080. At the same time GDP is proportional to population figure multiplied by human knowledge amount.

Орехов В.Д. Вопросы прогнозирования ВВП мира и отдельных стран. Труды XV междунар. науч.-практ. конф. «Качество дистанционного образования: концепции, проблемы, решения». – М.: МГИУ, 2013. – p.p. 170–174. 

In his article ‘Знания в системе развития общества’ (Knowledge within the society development system), the author shows the global knowledge accumulation essentially affects human technology move dynamics. The author considers how these moves relate to such an important phenomenon as Kondratiev’s long waves. The author shows Kondratiev’s waves (except for 1K and 3K) being close to knowledge-based technology revolution dates. The author suggests a model for calculating global GDP growth rate and shows the GDP growth rate decreases after the cybernetic revolution.

Орехов В. Д. Рост знаний человечества и длинные волны. Материалы XIV Междунар. научн.-практ. конф.:. – М.: МГИУ, 2012 – p.p. 131-136.

In this article, the author attempts to evaluate the role of knowledge within human development system. The article suggests a method for evaluating amount of knowledge in different epochs. The author shows knowledge enrichment being closely related to population growth. He proves technology revolutions happen when knowledge is enriched from 2 to 2.4 times. Considered are educational and innovative problems consequent upon knowledge enrichment. Hypotheses featuring the next technology revolution are suggested.

Орехов В.Д. Место знания в системе развития человечества. Качество дистанционного образования: концепции, проблемы, решения. Межвузовский сборник научных трудов, М.: МГИУ, 2010 г. p.p.165-190.

The author evaluates the role of innovations and knowledge within human development system. A formula Z = 2*10^9/(2025-Т)^1.3 (in conditional books) for evaluating knowledge amount up to1960 is suggested. The author proves that up to 1960 technology revolutions happened when knowledge enriched by 2.5 times. The author indicates the danger of human knowledge stagnation as a result of demographic transition. Considered are features of the global innovative process.

Орехов В. Д. Инновационный процесс и его роль в развитии человечества: Матер. 2-й Междунар. научн.-практ. конф.: Шумпетеровские чтения. – Пермь: ПНИИПУ, 2012. – p.p. 82 – 88.

How actively higher education organisations issue research reports is increasingly an important indicator of quality of their activity. So a question arises whether this approach is adequate, what its features are and how it affects adequate funding of research activity. The article considers how investments in R&D affect publication activity, also considered are interrelation of different publication ratios and the language factor effects. The author distinguishes groups of countries-leaders of publication activity and presents the change of leaders dynamics.

Орехов В.Д. Расходы на НИОКР и публикации, как показатели научной активности. Труды Всерос. науч.-практ. конф. «Формирование системы независимой оценки квалификации и качество дистанционного образования». Москва, Ярославль, Жуковский, 2014.

Thanks: Lifestar