This site is intended for those who are interested in the human development objective laws, knowledge management and issues of forecasting future.

Global natality crisis

Всемирный кризис рождаемости

Global population has been growing exponentially for more than two million years and so increased by 70,000 times with the growth rate jumped sharply in the 20 century. Many journals still insist on the direst threat of overpopulating.

And suddenly population slammed the brakes on starting from 1960 and now is expected to stop at the level of 10-11 bln people. This phenomenon is called demographic transition. What is the reason of it? There are at least five well-grounded theories. Which of them is correct? And what threats does such a slam imply?

Typically such supercomplex systems like humanity are surprisingly resistant to various effects and change their status when only their most vulnerable pins are attacked. So what is this mysterious reason revealed by nobody? The latest idea relates it to female literacy. The author offers his own view in chapter 3.

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Thanks: МГУДТ